Expected Value (EV) Calculator
Enter the American odds a sportsbook is offering and the true probability of the outcome to see the expected value per unit staked.
What is Expected Value?
Expected value (EV) measures the average profit or loss you'd expect per bet if you could place the same bet thousands of times. A bet with positive EV (+EV) means the odds are in your favour — the bookmaker is offering a higher payout than the true probability warrants.
The Formula
EV = (True Probability × Profit if Win) − (Probability of Loss × Stake). If EV > 0, the bet is profitable in the long run. If EV < 0, the bookmaker has the edge.
Where Does the True Probability Come From?
The hardest part is estimating the true probability. One reliable method is to take a sharp bookmaker's odds (like Pinnacle) and remove their vig — this gives you a close approximation of the true probability. You can use our Vig Calculator to do this.
EdgeInsights does this automatically: we de-vig Pinnacle's lines and compare them to every other sportsbook to find +EV edges in real time.